The Super Delegates were created to make it possible to shift the nomination of the Democratic candidate for president from the candidate with the most pledged delegates to another candidate. This year is the time for the Super Delegates to perform that function and nominate Bernie Sanders as the Democratic candidate for president.
Barring a miracle, Hillary will end up with more pledged delegates than Bernie. There are many reasons for this. When the campaign began, Bernie was a relatively obscure senator from a small state in New England and the media had already awarded the nomination to Hillary. She had been a public figure for years and her popularity had risen during her term as a hard-working Secretary of State. She had the experience and the knowledge to be president. She had already been through a hotly contested primary fight against Barack Obama. She had been vetted.
With no competitor on the horizon, Hillary had lined up significant financial support and obtained commitments from a large number of Super Delegates. The debate schedule was rigged in her favor – few in number and scheduled opposite popular sporting events, so as to prevent any challenger from getting exposure. The primary schedule was favorable to her. She had the nearly unanimous backing of the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic establishment. Everyone wanted to be on the right side of the next president. Everyone knew that the Clintons have long memories.
Then a relatively unknown 74 year old Jewish senator from Vermont and self-described Democratic Socialist, Bernie Sanders, entered the campaign. Despite being virtually ignored by the media, he began to resonate with Democrats and Independents – and some Republicans, especially working class voters and those under 45. Now, eight months later, Bernie is defeating Hillary in primary after primary and out-performing her in virtually every poll pitting each of them against Donald Trump. It is apparent to all that Bernie has the more passionate support and that his campaign has more energy. So what happened?
First and foremost, Bernie spoke to the needs, aspirations and difficulties of ordinary Americans. He identified the ways in which our political system is corrupt. He exposed how our political and economic systems are rigged for the benefit of large corporate interests and the very rich. He put forth policies desired by ordinary people that would create a fairer and stronger America. He was perceived as running because he wants to change things for the better, rather than out of personal vanity or ambition or out of a desire for power for its own sake. His favorability rating and his rating for honesty and trustworthiness greatly eclipse Hillary’s. In a word, Bernie connected with the voters.
Hillary, by contrast, has failed to connect. She expected to march inexorably to her inevitable nomination because, after all, she was the most qualified candidate ever and she had no competition. So she embarked on a “listening tour”, from which the press was excluded. Her entourage moved in stately fashion, a cordon of staff workers surrounding her so no reporter could approach. She gave no interviews. And for a long time it worked.
As the “inevitable” nominee, opposed only by an old socialist who received little media attention, Hillary racked up a series of victories in “red” states in the South, which the Democrats have no expectation of carrying in November. Her margins of victory in those – and later – primaries were inflated by the fact that most Democratic primaries are “closed”, i.e., no independents can vote in them, thereby excluding a category of voters that favors Bernie. Another factor that has worked in Clinton’s favor – and still has some currency – is the frequently expressed sentiment that “while I like Bernie and his positions, the most important thing is to win the White House and Hillary is the stronger candidate.” While I agree that winning the White House is all-important, Hillary is no longer the stronger candidate.
Her unfavorability rating is very high. She is not particularly likable. Her voice grates on a lot of people. Her setting up her private server demonstrates, at a minimum, atrocious judgment. The public rates her honesty and trustworthiness very low. A 13 minute video of Hillary’s lies is circulating on the internet. It makes one cringe a bit.
Republicans hate her and she does poorly with independents. A significant percentage of voters who supported Bernie in the New Hampshire and West Virginia primaries have said they will not vote for Hillary in November. In a year where the electorate is yearning for someone who is not part of the Establishment, Hillary is the quintessential establishment politician. Bernie, by contrast, does very well with independents and even appeals to some Republicans.
As much as he can, Trump will conduct the upcoming campaign in the gutter. He’s already taken aim at Bill as an abuser of women and at Hillary as Bill’s “enabler.” Now that Hillary has said she will make Bill her Economics Czar, Trump is dredging up stories of Bill’s mistresses and other peccadilloes. Google “Julie Tauber McMahon – the Energizer” and “Jeffrey Epstein Bill Clinton Lolita Express.” And, of course, we’ll hear volumes from Trump about The Clinton Foundation, the FBI investigation into Hillary’s private email server, Hillary’s vote for the Iraq War, Libya, etc. If Trump knows anything, it is how to dominate the media and it will be ugly.
Having said all that, I still think Hillary will beat Trump if she is the nominee. I will vote for her, of course, as will most people who are concerned about the composition of the Supreme Court and the well-being of the nation. But it will be closer than I once thought. The polls show that Bernie, by contrast, would beat Trump with ease. He’s an honest, principled outsider who is offering what the people want. He is not saddled with any of the Clinton baggage. He doesn’t have to evade questions about his $225,000 speeches to Goldman, Sachs because he didn’t give any. More important, a victory by Bernie will begin the process of taking America back from the plutocratic oligarchs for whom the country has been run. He will be the champion of the people. If, somehow, Bernie wins in California, the Super Delegates will have to start feeling the Bern.
I'm Not Making This Up... 