Occam’s Razor Revisited

High drama in the nation’s capitol. The media is buzzing over whether Trump will fire (or try to fire) Special Counsel Robert Mueller and/or Rod Rosenstein, the Deputy Attorney General with responsibility for supervising Mueller’s investigation. Several Republican senators say he will not, because it would be political “suicide” and because he’s “too smart” to do that and because “it would be the beginning of the end of his presidency.” Maybe.

I think the answer is more likely to be revealed by assessing the depths of Trump’s fear over the likelihood that if allowed to continue, Mueller will issue a damaging obstruction of justice report and then issue a report filled with hard evidence of financial corruption.

I am assuming, of course, that Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice, of financial corruption, and of questionable dealings with the Russians. That is my starting point for employing Occam’s Razor.

Long time readers of this blog will recall that 14th Century logician, William Occam, was of the view that the most likely hypothesis is the one that makes the fewest new assumptions. Known as Occam’s Razor, this “law” is popularly stated as follows:

“The correct answer to a question is most likely the simplest one.”

The simplest answer here seems to be that Trump will do everything in his power to shut down Mueller’s investigation, including firing Mueller and/or Rosenstein, because he knows that:

1. He and his campaign supported and encouraged Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 election in Trump’s favor
2. He has obstructed the investigation into Trump’s ties to Russia and a report spelling out the details of his obstruction is about to be issued
3. He and his family have engaged in corrupt business practices
4. Monday’s issuance of a subpoena to Michael Cohen by the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York, is likely to expose not only Trump’s sleazy personal behavior and his use of payoffs, litigation threats, and non-disclosure agreements to keep silent the women which whom he had dalliances, but also to contain evidence of Trump’s corrupt financial dealings, in particular those involving Russians.

Trump now knows that if Mueller and his team of investigators are allowed to complete their work, they will marshal evidence showing that Trump’s campaign supported and encouraged Russia in its meddling in the 2016 election. The evidence will show that Trump is the head of a crime family that has engaged in money laundering and other corrupt financial activities, often with Russians. It will show that Trump is under obligations to Russians – including Vladimir Putin – that give them leverage over him. It will show that Trump, his family members, and his cronies have used Trump’s position, first as a candidate and then as president, to enrich themselves. And it will show that Trump has used threats, payoffs and non-disclosure agreements to conceal his sleazy personal behavior. Trump simply cannot afford to let Mueller complete his work.

I start, of course, with the premise that Trump is a loathsome, corrupt buffoon, who is unfit to be president. As the Editorial Board of the NY Times recently stated:

“He has spent his career in the company of developers and celebrities, and also of grifters, cons, sharks, goons and crooks. He cuts corners, he lies, he cheats, he brags about it, and for the most part, he’s gotten away with it, protected by threats of litigation, hush money and his own bravado.”

Unlike every other president and presidential candidate, Trump has hidden his financial dealings from public scrutiny – no tax returns produced, nothing about his businesses disclosed. He has said that any attempt to penetrate his wall of secrecy and obstruction will be viewed as “crossing a red line”. Why? For presidential candidates to produce their tax returns and disclose their business interests has become a political “norm”. Isn’t the simplest explanation of Trump’s refusal to conform to that norm that he is dirty?

Why did Trump’s campaign insist that the 2016 Republican Platform be modified to be nicer to Russia? Why has Trump toadied up to Puttin and modified U.S. foreign policy so as to support Russian policy objectives? And why did Trump and his minions repeatedly lie about their contacts with Russians and obstruct the Justice Department’s investigation into those contacts? The “fake media” – primarily The NY Times and The Washington Post – has disclosed more than 70 such contacts. Isn’t the simplest explanation that the Russians have the goods on Trump and he has a lot to hide?

Trump’s presidency has been one clumsy coverup attempt after another. Since his inauguration in January of last year, Trump has repeatedly tried to shut down any investigation of connections between Russia and his campaign. First he tried to get Jim Comey, the head of the FBI, to end the investigation of Michael Flynn and to give Flynn a “pass” because he is a “good guy”, never mind that this “good guy” was a secret paid agent of Turkey and a recipient of Russian money. Not only that, Trump had been warned of Flynn’s disqualifying activities when he appointed Flynn as his first of three – so far – National Security Advisors.

When Comey wouldn’t accede to Trump’s requests to drop the investigation into Flynn’s activities, Trump fired him. The next day he told the Russian Ambassador (and spy chief) and the Russian Foreign Minister that his purpose in firing Comey was to shut down the Russia investigation. This was in the Oval Office, at a meeting from which American journalists and photographers had been excluded! He then admitted to Lester Holt of CBS in a televised interview that this was his reason for firing Comey! What more is needed to establish obstruction of justice?

But there is more. In May 2017, after Attorney General Jeff Sessions had recused himself from the Russia investigation – because he had lied about his contacts with Russia – Rod Rosenstein, as Deputy Attorney General, appointed Mueller as Special Counsel. Trump was furious and tried to bully Sessions into quitting so he could replace him with someone who would take over the Russian investigation and end it. But Sessions wouldn’t quit.

And even more. In June 2017, Trump again tried to terminate the Russia investigation by directing White House Counsel, Don McGahn, to fire Mueller. But when McGahn threatened to quit rather than carry out Trump’s order, Trump backed off. Then, last December, when Trump mistakenly thought Mueller had subpoenaed his financial records from Deutschebank, Trump again threatened to fire him, backing off only when he learned of his mistake. (Trump tweeted this morning denying the December event, but saying that if he had wanted to fire Mueller, he would have done so.) White House insiders say Trump constantly fumes over Rosenstein and Mueller and frequently talks about firing them. He is emboldened by Alan Dershowitz – now a FOX darling, who says he has the power to do so.

Why has Trump been obsessed for nearly a year now with obstructing and ending the Russia investigation? Isn’t the simplest answer that Trump is dirty and terrified of what the investigation will discover?

The catalyst for this week’s Trump twitter eruption and his remarkably paranoid soliloquy Monday afternoon in front of his generals, as they were assembled to discuss how to proceed against Assad, is the subpoena served on Trump’s “personal lawyer”, Michael Cohen Monday morning. (I put “personal lawyer” in quotes, because to call Michael Cohen a lawyer insults the profession.) Cohen is a “fixer” and a thug, who, for more than a decade, has cleaned up Trump’s messes with threats, bullying, payoffs and non-disclosure agreements. He was disappointed when he didn’t get an official spot on the campaign or in the Administration. He is widely known to be unethical and sleazy. Louise Sunshine, a former Trump Organization executive who knows Cohen, said:

“When it comes to Michael Cohen, anything is possible. Anything and everything is possible.”

Although the impetus for the Cohen subpoena seems to be questions regarding the hush-money payoffs to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, the scope of the subpoena appears to be much broader and may very well produce evidence of payoffs to Trump’s other women in return for non-disclosure agreements – of which there are many. Of even more danger to Trump is the likelihood that Cohen’s files contain evidence of Trump’s corrupt financial dealings with Russians.

On Monday afternoon, Trump called the subpoena “a disgrace”, “an attack against our country . . . an attack on what we all stand for . . . [and] a whole new level of unfairness.” Later that day, he became apoplectic when he learned that Rod Rosenstein had signed off on the issuance of the subpoena – angrier than anyone had seen him since he became president. He has been ranting about firing Rosenstein ever since.

Yesterday Trump tweeted:

Talk about crazy, every word of that tweet is false, crazy, or both.

Trump’s chief propagandist, Sean Hannity, who has attacked Mueller viciously and relentlessly, has characterized his investigation as a flagrant attempt to “take from you the president you elected.” He also talks about Rosenstein as though he were Emmanuel Goldstein, the object of the Two Minute Daily Hate in “1984”. He said last month that he doesn’t think Trump will fire Mueller, but that was before the Cohen subpoena.

Monday evening Hannity said that:
“this is now officially an all-hands-on-deck effort to totally malign and, if possible, impeach the president of the United States. Now, Mueller and Rosenstein have declared what is a legal war on the president.”

Sean Hannity is a dangerous, mendacious demagogue, but when he says this is war he is right – and the future of the country may be at stake. Trump cannot be allowed to ride roughshod over the rule of law by shutting down the Mueller investigation. It seems – and I am hoping – that Trump may have waited too long to take action. The national polls show that Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose firing Mueller and it will be difficult for Trump to kill the investigation. Mueller has told Trump’s attorneys that he is finishing up a report on the obstruction of justice issue and will send it to Rosenstein, probably in May or June. Then it will be up to Rosenstein to decide whether to make it public. Rosenstein, again.

The “Saturday Night Massacre” of Watergate fame persists in the national memory and no one wants to be reviled and remembered as the person who fired Mueller at Trump’s direction – although I suspect Scott Pruitt and some others of his ilk might be willing to do it. But who knows? If Richard Nixon had had a propaganda machine like FOX “News” in his corner and if he had bit the bullet and destroyed the tapes that brought down his presidency, maybe he could have brazened it out and survived.

Having said all that, I can’t imagine Trump simply allowing the Mueller investigation to proceed and for the obstruction of justice report to be written and made public by Rosenstein. Once that step is taken it really will be too late for Trump to take his obstruction of justice to eleven by firing everyone. Even Republicans would have to act then.

The man I saw Monday afternoon is a cornered and wounded beast. He is looking at a future where his business will be wrecked, where he will be impeached, and where there may even be criminal exposure. He has no advisors he can trust, except Stephen Miller. (Does that scare you? It should.) I suspect he will lash out and attempt to stop or – more likely – circumscribe the Mueller investigation by replacing Rosenstein with a Trumpist stooge like Pruitt who will severely curtail the scope of Mueller’s investigation and drop all related criminal prosecutions “in the interest of putting an end to these groundless distractions and returning to the business of making America great again” or some such bullshit. FOX will step up its attacks on Mueller. Trump will say “no collusion” about 1000 more times and point out that he was never “the target” of the investigation. Then Pruitt or a like-minded stooge may be able to end the investigation.

I think Trump will go this route because he feels he doesn’t have a choice. And who is going to stop him? He doesn’t listen to anyone except Stephen Miller and James Mattis, who is too busy with Syria to advise him on Rod Rosenstein, and I think that, despite all their talk about “political suicide” and the importance of the rule of law, the Republicans in Congress may be too cowardly to do anything.

Mitch McConnell said of proposed legislation to protect Mueller from firing:
“I haven’t seen a clear indication yet that we needed to pass something to keep him [Mueller] from being removed because I don’t think that’s going to happen, and that remains my view.”

Paul Ryan said nothing, except to announce that he will not run for re-election. Pathetic.

On the other hand, I may be completely wrong in my assumptions regarding Trump’s guilt. Maybe he is completely innocent of everything. But if he is, then why does he act like he does? As Trey Gowdy – no wimpy liberal he – said of Trump:
“If you’re innocent, then act like it.”

As McConnell says, we’ll see what’s “going to happen.” I think there will be blood.